NFL forecaster titles: rules, holders and the picks behind them
Hunchmeter gives titles by published rules only. Catalog usa-1 defines 56 kinds; 23 are shown. 73 forecasters hold 299 titles. Each title opens on the holder's page with the picks behind it.
Titles are facts about past picks, given by published rules. A title is not a recommendation.
How titles work
- Each title is a fact about past picks: a level in a field (No.1, Top 3, Top 5, Top 10, always with the size of the field, "of M"), a count or a record.
- Levels come from the live record only: picks we recorded before kick-off, from Week 6 on. No.1 needs at least 5 forecasters in the field, Top 3 at least 8, Top 5 at least 12, Top 10 at least 20, ordered by the lower bound of the 95% Wilson interval.
- Every title is marked with where the pick times come from: recorded before kick-off, time-stamped by the publishing platform, archive record, or per the outlet's published record.
- A profile shows up to three titles under Standing; the rest are under All titles. Titles built on the same picks are merged and shown once.
- Outlet titles are kept apart from the titles of people.
Records by market
- Straight-up picks standing · R-01 · no holders yet
Share of straight-up picks right: wins divided by wins plus losses; pushes are left out. - Picks against the spread standing · R-02 · no holders yet
Share of against-the-spread picks right: wins divided by wins plus losses; pushes are left out. - Over/under picks standing · R-03 · no holders yet
Share of over/under picks right: wins divided by wins plus losses; pushes are left out.
NFL weeks
- No.1 of the week · W-01 · no holders yet
Among forecasters with at least 10 decided picks on a market in one NFL week (8 on totals), the first by the lower bound of the 95% Wilson interval, with at least 5 in the field, a share above the field and more wins than losses. - Strong week · W-02 · 6 holders
At least 10 decided picks on a market in one NFL week (8 on totals), with at least 80% right straight up, or 70% against the spread or on totals. - Biggest upset called · W-05 · 41 holders
Of the week's underdog wins that at least one tracked forecaster called (market chance below 40%), the least likely one.
Runs of correct picks
- Correct run · S-01 · 4 holders
Picks right in a row on one market, in kick-off order. - Rare run · S-03 · 2 holders
A run of picks right that the market priced at 1 in 50 or longer: the product of each pick's market chance (straight up, from the moneyline without the bookmaker margin; against the spread and on totals, one half).
Underdogs
- Upset calls · U-01 · 34 holders
Straight-up picks on the underdog that won outright. - Upset Specialist (underdogs that won outright) · U-02 · 6 holders
At least 5 straight-up underdog picks, at least 3 of them won, and at least 1.0 more wins than the market prices implied. - Underdogs against the spread · U-04 · 1 holder
Picks on the underdog against the spread: at least 10 decided, with a share at least 10 points above the field in the same category and more wins than losses.
Game types
- Division games · E-03 · 4 holders
Picks in games between two teams of the same division, on one market: at least 8 decided, with a share at least 10 points above the field in the same category and more wins than losses. - Prime-time games · E-04 · 1 holder
Picks in games that start at 7 p.m. ET or later (Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games and other evening games), on one market: at least 6 decided, with a share at least 10 points above the field in the same category and more wins than losses.
Teams
- Team game record · T-01 · 6 holders
Picks in one team's games on one market: at least 5 decided, the lower bound of the 95% Wilson interval above the base rate (50% against the spread and on totals; the average market chance of the picks straight up), and a share above the field in that team's games. - Team standing · T-02 · no holders yet
Ranking in one team's games on one market: at least 6 decided picks, ordered by the lower bound of the 95% Wilson interval, with a share above the field and more wins than losses.
Against the crowd and the market
- Right against the crowd · C-01 · 45 holders
A game where at least 6 other tracked forecasters made a pick on the same market, at least 60% of them were wrong, and this forecaster was right. - More right than the market implied · C-04 · 2 holders
At least 15 straight-up picks with a market chance: wins minus the sum of the market chances is +2 or more (steps +2, +4, +8). - Panel standing · C-06 · no holders yet
Ranking within one outlet's panel (ESPN, CBS Sports, NFL.com, a Tallysight team site) on one market, by the lower bound of the 95% Wilson interval, with levels by the number of panelists.
Score forecasts
- Exact final score · SC-01 · 1 holder
A predicted final score that matched the final score, overtime included, for both teams.
Record keeping
- Recorded before kick-off · D-01 · no holders yet
The number of graded picks we recorded on the outlet's page before kick-off. - Time-stamped record · D-02 · 56 holders
The number of graded picks whose time before kick-off was set by the publishing platform or shown by a web archive copy; we saw these picks later.
Profile line
- Best call · X-01 · 63 holders
One per forecaster, shown on the profile: the correct straight-up pick with the lowest market chance (below 50%).
Outlets
- Panel record when most agreed · O-01 · no holders yet
Outlet pages only. In games where at least 3 panelists picked, the side most of the panel took, graded on one market: at least 30 games, with a share at least 5 points above the average of the outlets.
Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 00:15 UTC. Title count: 73 forecasters with five or more graded picks we can use.