Texans at Jaguars picks: what 1 expert predicts — and their record

Badges show titles earned before this pick, by published rules. A title is not a recommendation. How titles work

National media: large outlets with a national NFL panel. Team blogs: writers at SB Nation team sites who post their picks on Tallysight. Independent sites: picks sites that are neither.

• First reading we have: JAX -2.5, total 42.5 (Oct 12, 3:40 p.m. ET).
• Latest reading: JAX -2.5, total 42.5 (Oct 12, 11:16 p.m. ET).
• The spread did not move.
• Market chance to win, bookmaker margin removed: Jaguars 57%, Texans 43%.
• Prediction-market prices: not recorded yet.

Market lines are for reference: each spread pick is graded at the line its own outlet printed. About the market line

• Records before this game: Texans 1-4, Jaguars 4-1.
• Division game: both teams play in the AFC South.
• Earlier meetings in our records (since 2024):
  • Nov 9, 2025: Jaguars 29, Texans 36 · closing line HOU -7.5
  • Sept 21, 2025: Texans 10, Jaguars 17 · closing line JAX -6.5
  • Dec 1, 2024: Texans 23, Jaguars 20
  • Sept 29, 2024: Jaguars 20, Texans 24
• Texans, last games: Week 5 HOU 26, TEN 3; Week 4 DAL 34, HOU 30; Week 3 HOU 17, IND 19.
• Jaguars, last games: Week 5 PHI 17, JAX 19; Week 4 JAX 22, CIN 17; Week 3 NE 6, JAX 35.

What we don't have

• Injuries, expected lineups and weather: we don't track them.
• Prediction-market prices: not recorded yet.
• No picks for this game from Bleeding Green Nation on the pages we read.

• The Phinsider picks on Tallysight (winners) · page saved Oct 12, 2026, 21:16 UTC · SHA-256 cb4fde78661f…

We keep a copy of every page we read. The fingerprint (SHA-256) identifies the exact copy. Labels at each pick: recorded before kick-off (we saw it before the game), time-stamped before kick-off (the publishing platform's time), restored after the game (read from the outlet's page later). How we record and grade picks.